Chance of Government Shutting Down Again

Few would have predicted that information technology would be Frg that would offer the toughest response to Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

© POOL /REUTERS German language Chancellor Olaf Scholz addresses a joint news conference with Ireland's Prime Minister (not pictured) following talks at the Chancellery, in Berlin, Frg February 22, 2022. John Macdougall/Pool via REUTERS - POOL /REUTERS

Just a few days ago, Olaf Scholz was seen as a weak link in the Western alliance with his refusal to arm Ukraine and his ambiguous opinion on Russian gas. Federal republic of germany, the muttering went, was an unreliable ally.

Non any more. With his decisive move to shut down the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Mr Scholz has thrust Federal republic of germany back into the vanguard of the Western response.

Boris Johnson talked tough but offered piddling. The sanctions he announced on Tuesday have come under fire from his own MPs and been denounced every bit a "joke" by Russia watchers.

Joe Biden pulled his punches, announcing limited sanctions but holding back tougher measures for later.

Mr Scholz, on the other mitt, went straight for the jugular, hitting downwardly an £8bn pipeline that was a vital piece of Mr Putin'south strategy of putting an energy stranglehold on Europe.

And the High german chancellor didn't mince his words, making clear this is no temporary gesture and that the pipeline may now never get into operation.

"I certainly wouldn't advise anyone to bet on it," he told German television. "We're a long style from that now."

© Provided by The Telegraph FILE PHOTO: The logo of the Nord Stream ii gas pipeline project is seen on a large diameter pipe at the Chelyabinsk Pipage Rolling Establish owned past ChelPipe Group in Chelyabinsk, Russia, February 26, 2020. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo - MAXIM SHEMETOV /REUTERS

Suddenly Mr Scholz looks similar the only grown up in the room. In that location was fifty-fifty idle talk on Twitter of making him "leader of the Western world" — a role he wouldn't want and that wouldn't accommodate him.

So what is behind his credible change of form? It may non actually be a shift at all. He may merely take taken on board Theodore Roosevelt'due south old foreign policy maxim: "Speak softly and carry a big stick".

Federal republic of germany certainly carries a bigger stick than well-nigh when it comes to economic relations with Russian federation.

I of the reasons to welcome the new clarity from Berlin is that Germany is by far Russia'south biggest European trade partner.

It accounted for a third of EU exports to Russia in 2021, and has been the bloc's biggest importer from the country for the past 6 years.

Video: Putin using 'nationalist' tactics (Heaven News)

Putin using 'nationalist' tactics

If economical sanctions are to have any take chances of working , Germany has to be on lath.

The word in Berlin is that Mr Scholz had long privately conceded that Nord Stream would have to go if Russia invaded, just refused to spell information technology out in public.

He may have calculated that public threats were unlikely to have much impact on Mr Putin — a conclusion events appear to accept borne out — and would simply serve to foment dissent at home from the pipeline's many German supporters. One time the Russian tanks began to roll, it was a dissimilar story.

But there are reasons to believe Mr Scholz's move against Nord Stream may signal a more seismic shift in Germany's dealings with Russia.

© Provided by The Telegraph A tank drives along a street afterward Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the deployment of Russian troops to two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine following the recognition of their independence, in the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk, Ukraine February 22, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko - ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO /REUTERS

Information technology is hitting that fifty-fifty some of the pipeline's about ardent High german supporters take backed the conclusion.

Sigmar Gabriel, a former foreign minister, summed information technology upward. "I've e'er been a supporter of the projection considering I believed in the peace dividend in economic policy," he told German radio. "But I can't imagine that this project volition become a reality now unless miracles happen.

"I don't think anyone should fool themselves, we already have high energy prices, and they're going to become higher. But we have to show what peace in Europe is worth to us, and I don't recollect we should shy away from that."

Germany has long supported dialogue with Russia, but in that location is a sense that Mr Putin'south crossing of the rubicon in eastern Ukraine has changed that.

"It was right and it remains right to keep channels of conversation open," said Christoph Heusgen, Angela Merkel'due south one-time strange policy advisor. "Merely we were as well credulous: we e'er underestimated Putin's brutality and ruthlessness."

All the signs are that the crisis could have far-reaching consequences for German-Russian relations — and for Moscow's free energy exports.

Robert Habeck, the German vice-chancellor and business minister, is said to have been instrumental in convincing Mr Scholz to close down Nord Stream.

Now he looks set to tear up Germany energy policy and wean the country off its dependence on Russian gas.

"Europe needs a various energy landscape and not a cluster risk from the Baltic Sea," Mr Habeck said. "In times similar these, free energy policy must always exist assessed in terms of security policy and geopolitics."

That is a move that will exist welcomed by Frg's Western allies, who take long feared Nord Stream would put Europe at Mr Putin's mercy.

Mr Habeck claimed Germany has secured alternative sources of gas should Russian federation cut the flow through existing pipelines in revenge, and vowed to shield ordinary people from price rises by cutting taxes.

Mr Putin appears to take banked that Europe's dependence on Russian gas would allow him to act with impunity.

But by finally spurring Germany into activeness, he may have made a decisive miscalculation.

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